Valencia vs Deportivo Alaves Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Valencia v Deportivo Alaves — Team-Based Signals
Valencia vs Deportivo Alaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Valencia
İS1
Valencia 3-2 Deportivo Alaves — Actual Match Statistics
Valencia nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Alaves 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Valencia as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Valencia had 61% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 39%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.79 to 1.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Valencia's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Alaves led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Valencia and 1.00 for Deportivo Alaves.
What was the final score of Valencia vs Deportivo Alaves?
Valencia 3-2 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Valencia vs Deportivo Alaves?
Before kick-off our model rated a Valencia win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Valencia 46%, draw 29%, Deportivo Alaves 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valencia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.