Pachuca 2-1 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 8 Mar 2026

📅08/03/2026 · 🕒04:06 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
22%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.08
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 28% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
51%
+3.9pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.7pp
22%
Away Win
23%
-1.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -1%
1.44/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.49
+14% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
362 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
16.7 Crosses 17.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Puebla
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.99 xG 0.76
57% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
349 Passes 245
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2025 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
27.02.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
21.09.2024 Puebla Puebla 2-3 HT 1-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
21.02.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-4 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
29.10.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
10.01.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 5-1 HT 2-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
2-1
AWAY Puebla
1.14 xG 0.49
40% Ball Possession 60%
20 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
303 Passes 458
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 14
7 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca edged past Puebla 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pachuca had 40% of the ball to Puebla's 60%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.14 to 0.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Pachuca and 1.33 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Puebla?

Pachuca 2-1 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 55%, draw 23%, Puebla 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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