Atlas 1-2 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 8 Mar 2026

📅08/03/2026 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.13
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
41%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.88
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
23%
3.6
6+ Goals
9%
15.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
21%
+9.1pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.4pp
41%
Away Win
55%
-13.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.5pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 59%
-6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -18%
1.29/1.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.04
+16% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / +7%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
242 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 83%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
17.6 Crosses 28.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.36 xG 1.80
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
235 Passes 355
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.01.2026 Atlas Atlas 0-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara HAZ
26.10.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 4-1 HT 3-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
20.04.2025 Atlas Atlas 1-1 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
22.11.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
06.10.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-3 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
28.04.2024 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
1-2
AWAY Guadalajara
0.27 xG 2.61
32% Ball Possession 68%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
198 Passes 500
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara nicked a narrow win over Atlas 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Atlas had 32% of the ball to Guadalajara's 68%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.27 to 2.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Guadalajara's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atlas and 1.50 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Guadalajara?

Atlas 1-2 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atlas 30%, draw 29%, Guadalajara 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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