Tigres UANL vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tigres UANL v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals
Tigres UANL vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Tigres UANL 1-0 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics
Tigres UANL squeezed past Monterrey 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Tigres UANL had 56% of the ball to Monterrey's 44%, shots finished 13-4, expected goals 1.65 to 0.06 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tigres UANL's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tigres UANL and 2.00 for Monterrey.
What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Monterrey?
Tigres UANL 1-0 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Monterrey?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 47%, draw 27%, Monterrey 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.