Puebla 2-2 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 24 Sep 2025

Puebla
2-2 HT 0-1
Pachuca
📅24/09/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Puebla vs Pachuca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
49%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.0
Over 2.5
61%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.66
No
37%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.06
6+ Goals
15%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
12%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
9%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
29%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
26%
+1.3pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.2pp
49%
Away Win
49%
+0.0pp
39%
Under 2.5
46%
-6.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
54%
+6.8pp
63%
BTTS Yes
56%
+7.0pp
37%
BTTS No
44%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Pachuca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 53%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.12/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.08
-4% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +22%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
287 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 82%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
16.6 Crosses 18.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Puebla vs Pachuca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Pachuca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.81 xG 1.85
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
220 Passes 352
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.02.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
21.09.2024 Puebla Puebla 2-3 HT 1-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
21.02.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-4 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
29.10.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
10.01.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 5-1 HT 2-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
08.09.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK

Puebla 2-2 Pachuca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
2-2
AWAY Pachuca
0.37 xG 1.96
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 4
295 Passes 264
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puebla and Pachuca couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Pachuca at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (63%) came in.

On the day, Puebla had 53% of the ball to Pachuca's 47%, shots finished 6-16, expected goals 0.37 to 1.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Puebla and 2.83 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Pachuca?

Puebla 2-2 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 24/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Puebla 28%, draw 23%, Pachuca 49%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pachuca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
24 Sep 2025
04:07 Guadalajara vs Necaxa Analysis →
06:00 FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM Analysis →
06:05 Leon vs Mazatlan Analysis →