Leon 2-2 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 24 Sep 2025

Leon
2-2 HT 2-0
Mazatlan
📅24/09/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Leon vs Mazatlan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.7
No
42%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.7
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
28%
2.99
6+ Goals
11%
9.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.5pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.9pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.8pp
42%
BTTS No
45%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leon v Mazatlan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -5%
1.53/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.55
-5% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
20.0 Crosses 16.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Leon vs Mazatlan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mazatlan
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.42 xG 1.26
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
366 Passes 286
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.02.2025 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 0-2 Leon Leon MEK
06.11.2024 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
31.01.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-2 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
19.08.2023 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 0-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
25.03.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
14.08.2022 Leon Leon 0-3 HT 0-3 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK

Leon 2-2 Mazatlan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
2-2
AWAY Mazatlan
3.71 xG 1.83
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
373 Passes 248
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Leon vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon and Mazatlan couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Leon at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Leon had 59% of the ball to Mazatlan's 41%, shots finished 19-16, expected goals 3.71 to 1.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Leon and 1.33 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Leon vs Mazatlan?

Leon 2-2 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 24/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Leon 50%, draw 22%, Mazatlan 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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