Guadalajara 3-1 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 24 Sep 2025

📅24/09/2025 · 🕒04:07 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.57
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.06
6+ Goals
11%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 28% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.0pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.0pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.8pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 31%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.30/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.49
-17% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 77%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
18.2 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Necaxa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.65 xG 1.07
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
355 Passes 262
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.01.2025 Necaxa Necaxa 3-2 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
23.10.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-2 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
21.02.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
14.07.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
09.04.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
20.08.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-4 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
3-1
AWAY Necaxa
2.02 xG 1.66
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
359 Passes 432
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara beat Necaxa 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Guadalajara had 46% of the ball to Necaxa's 54%, shots finished 10-23, expected goals 2.02 to 1.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Guadalajara and 1.00 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Necaxa?

Guadalajara 3-1 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 24/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 47%, draw 23%, Necaxa 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ BTTS Yes
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