FC Juarez 3-1 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 24 Sep 2025

📅24/09/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.59
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
4.04
6+ Goals
8%
19.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 31% vs market 30.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-2.6pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.7pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+4.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.4pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.22/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.22
-3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
301 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
20.9 Crosses 17.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.87 xG 1.21
46% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
259 Passes 325
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2025 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
13.04.2025 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
18.07.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-2 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
14.01.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
23.08.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 4-1 HT 3-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
08.01.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-1 HT 0-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
3-1
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.23 xG 0.70
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
308 Passes 369
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez saw off Pumas UNAM 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Pumas UNAM at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Juarez had 45% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 55%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 1.23 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FC Juarez and 1.17 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM?

FC Juarez 3-1 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 24/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 32%, draw 27%, Pumas UNAM 41%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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