Rakow Czestochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 8 Mar 2026

📅08/03/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.45
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 29% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.5
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
9%
4.53
X/2
11%
7.87
X/X
11%
5.09
2/1
9%
22.65
2/2
12%
5.83
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-3.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 29%
-12% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
1.31/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.57
-31% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +30%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 79%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
20.3 Crosses 17.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.99 xG 0.98
46% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
289 Passes 357
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-0 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
19.04.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 1-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
20.10.2024 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
11.05.2024 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 HT 2-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
12.11.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-1 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
05.03.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-2 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
2-0
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
2.20 xG 0.20
64% Ball Possession 36%
24 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 0
477 Passes 242
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
51 Box Touches 6
24 Crosses 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa beat Pogon Szczecin 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Rakow Czestochowa had 64% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 36%, shots finished 24-5, expected goals 2.20 to 0.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rakow Czestochowa and 0.83 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?

Rakow Czestochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Rakow Czestochowa 47%, draw 25%, Pogon Szczecin 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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