FK Orenburg 2-1 Zenit St. Petersburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 8 Mar 2026

📅08/03/2026 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
5.4
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
62%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.95
No
45%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
4%
X/2
20%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
32%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
15%
-0.5pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.1pp
62%
Away Win
64%
-1.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.2pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 69%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -9%
0.96/2.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.73
-3% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +28%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
262 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 446 · 83%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
19.5 Crosses 20.8
3.6 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.58 xG 2.59
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 23
3 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 7
256 Passes 488
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 44
13 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
22.10.2025 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 6-0 HT 3-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
27.09.2025 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 5-2 HT 2-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
23.11.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
05.10.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
21.04.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
30.09.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 3-1 HT 3-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
2-1
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
1.86 xG 3.54
38% Ball Possession 62%
15 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
227 Passes 426
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
44 Box Touches 36
25 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Zenit St. Petersburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg edged past Zenit St. Petersburg 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Zenit St. Petersburg at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 38% of the ball to Zenit St. Petersburg's 62%, shots finished 15-19, expected goals 1.86 to 3.54 — the balance of chances actually favoured Zenit St. Petersburg.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for FK Orenburg and 2.50 for Zenit St. Petersburg.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

FK Orenburg 2-1 Zenit St. Petersburg in the Russia - Premier League on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 15%, draw 23%, Zenit St. Petersburg 62%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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