BFC Daugavpils 1-3 Riga FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 8 May 2026

📅08/05/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
13%
7.78
Draw
17%
5.15
Away
70%
1.28
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
11%
1/X
5%
X/1
3%
X/2
18%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
41%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
13%
Home Win
10%
+2.7pp
17%
Draw
16%
+1.1pp
70%
Away Win
74%
-3.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.4pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Riga FC EU Bookmakers 78%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
0.91/2.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.63/0.84
-16% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +43%
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
204 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 423 · 83%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 41.9
13.0 Crosses 27.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Riga FC
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.04 xG 3.04
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
163 Passes 440
66% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 49
15 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.03.2026 Riga FC Riga FC 4-2 HT 2-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
29.09.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-1 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
06.07.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 1-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
14.05.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-1 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
29.03.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 1-2 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
19.10.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-5 Riga FC Riga FC LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1-3
AWAY Riga FC
0.42 xG 1.77
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
242 Passes 437
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 39
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC saw off BFC Daugavpils 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Riga FC as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 41% of the ball to Riga FC's 59%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.42 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 2.17 for Riga FC.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC?

BFC Daugavpils 1-3 Riga FC in the Latvia - Virsliga on 08/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 13%, draw 17%, Riga FC 70%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Riga FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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