BFC Daugavpils 0-1 Riga FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 29 Sep 2025

📅29/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
7.78
Draw
14%
4.95
Away
72%
1.3
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.23
Over 2.5
63%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.85
No
44%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
11%
1/X
5%
X/1
4%
X/2
14%
X/X
5%
2/1
4%
2/2
47%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
10%
+4.3pp
14%
Draw
17%
-3.4pp
72%
Away Win
73%
-0.8pp
37%
Under 2.5
41%
-3.5pp
63%
Over 2.5
59%
+3.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.7pp
44%
BTTS No
50%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Riga FC EU Bookmakers 77%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +9%
0.88/2.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.73/0.82
-19% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +35%
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
213 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 84%
14.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 42.8
13.1 Crosses 27.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Riga FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.90 xG 2.52
31% Ball Possession 69%
9 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
159 Passes 452
66% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 43
13 Crosses 33
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.07.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 1-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
14.05.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-1 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
29.03.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 1-2 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
19.10.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-5 Riga FC Riga FC LET
28.07.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
24.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
0-1
AWAY Riga FC
0.79 xG 2.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
259 Passes 365
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 43
18 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC squeezed past BFC Daugavpils 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Riga FC as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 44% of the ball to Riga FC's 56%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.79 to 2.50 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Riga FC's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.83 for Riga FC.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC?

BFC Daugavpils 0-1 Riga FC in the Latvia - Virsliga on 29/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 14%, draw 14%, Riga FC 72%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga FC) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Riga FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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