Riga FC 4-2 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
81%
1.18
Draw
12%
5.71
Away
7%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.27
No
55%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1/2
2%
1/X
5%
X/1
28%
X/2
3%
X/X
4%
2/1
9%
2/2
2%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
81%
Home Win
80%
+1.2pp
12%
Draw
14%
-2.2pp
7%
Away Win
6%
+1.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.0pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Riga FC EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 9%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +21%
2.74/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/2.57
+6% / +65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +6%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
370 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 82%
43.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
31.3 Crosses 11.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Riga FC
4W-1D-1L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.60 xG 0.94
67% Ball Possession 33%
21 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
440 Passes 174
84% Pass Accuracy 68%
46 Box Touches 14
35 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-1 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
06.07.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 1-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
14.05.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-1 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
29.03.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 1-2 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
19.10.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-5 Riga FC Riga FC LET
28.07.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Riga FC
4-2
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
3.84 xG 0.73
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
422 Passes 144
84% Pass Accuracy 64%
50 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC saw off BFC Daugavpils 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Riga FC as the likeliest winner at 81%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Riga FC had 68% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 32%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 3.84 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Riga FC and 0.50 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils?

Riga FC 4-2 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 81%, with the full match-result split Riga FC 81%, draw 12%, BFC Daugavpils 7%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga FC), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Riga FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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