Atletico Nacional 3-0 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 8 Aug 2025

📅08/08/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
16%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
58%
+3.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.3pp
16%
Away Win
18%
-1.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.2pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.56/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.34
+17% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
352 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 75%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.8
18.4 Crosses 13.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 1.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
380 Passes 226
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
24.02.2025 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-2 HT 2-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
20.09.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOLK
17.09.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
18.07.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
22.01.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
27.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
3-0
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.80 xG 0.59
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
374 Passes 277
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 11
12 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional swept aside Alianza Petrolera 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 55% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 45%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.80 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.00 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera?

Atletico Nacional 3-0 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 08/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 61%, draw 23%, Alianza Petrolera 16%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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