Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Aston Villa U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 8 Oct 2024

📅08/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
62%
1.3
Draw
19%
5.15
Away
19%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
3.46
Over
57%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.55
No
57%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
22%
8.55
2-3
38%
2.38
4-5
27%
2.37
6+
13%
3.96
Value flag · 0-1 at 8.55 — our 22% vs market 7.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Bolton Wanderers win — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-10.3pp
19%
Draw
16%
+2.8pp
19%
Away Win
12%
+7.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
25%
+17.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
75%
-17.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
60%
-17.0pp
57%
BTTS No
40%
+17.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa U21 EU Bookmakers 15%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.40/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/2.20
+59% / +118% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / -35%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
442 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
14.1 Crosses 7.3
0.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bolton Wanderers
1-1
AWAY Aston Villa U21
3.18 xG 0.89
71% Ball Possession 29%
22 Total Shots 2
10 Shots on Target 2
15 Corners 1
609 Passes 210
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 4
46 Crosses 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bolton Wanderers vs Aston Villa U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bolton Wanderers and Aston Villa U21 couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Bolton Wanderers carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bolton Wanderers had 71% of the ball to Aston Villa U21's 29%, shots finished 22-2, expected goals 3.18 to 0.89.

What was the final score of Bolton Wanderers vs Aston Villa U21?

Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Aston Villa U21 in the England - Futbol League Cup on 08/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bolton Wanderers vs Aston Villa U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Bolton Wanderers 62%, draw 19%, Aston Villa U21 19%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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