Leyton Orient 1-1 Colchester — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 8 Oct 2024

📅08/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
2.1
Over
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
26%
4.1
2-3
39%
1.85
4-5
22%
3.07
6+
13%
9.78
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.1 — our 26% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.0pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.4pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leyton Orient EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Colchester EU Bookmakers 30%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
2.08/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.09
-1% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 69%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
17.4 Crosses 16.0
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leyton Orient
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Colchester
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.07 xG 0.86
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
290 Passes 189
70% Pass Accuracy 62%
17 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.07.2023 Colchester Colchester 2-1 HT 1-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient HAZ
18.03.2023 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 2-2 HT 1-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
20.08.2022 Colchester Colchester 1-3 HT 0-1 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
01.03.2022 Colchester Colchester 2-2 HT 0-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
05.02.2022 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 0-1 HT 0-1 Colchester Colchester İN2
06.02.2021 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 0-0 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leyton Orient
1-1
AWAY Colchester
1.78 xG 1.30
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
443 Passes 225
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Leyton Orient vs Colchester
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leyton Orient and Colchester shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Leyton Orient at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Leyton Orient had 62% of the ball to Colchester's 38%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.78 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Colchester led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Leyton Orient and 1.33 for Colchester.

What was the final score of Leyton Orient vs Colchester?

Leyton Orient 1-1 Colchester in the England - Futbol League Cup on 08/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leyton Orient vs Colchester?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leyton Orient win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Leyton Orient 46%, draw 27%, Colchester 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leyton Orient) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leyton Orient) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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