Swindon Town 4-0 Bristol Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 8 Oct 2024

📅08/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
46%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.03
Over Pick
57%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
23%
3.83
2-3
39%
1.83
4-5
26%
3.2
6+
12%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
-0.7pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.4pp
46%
Away Win
43%
+3.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
45%
-2.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
55%
+2.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 46%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +41% / +41%
1.18/3.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/0.82
-3% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
11.2 Crosses 13.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bristol Rovers
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.01 xG 1.21
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
268 Passes 299
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3-0 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İNTK
22.01.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN2
02.10.2021 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-3 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
23.03.2021 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 0-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
21.11.2020 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
13.11.2019 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-0 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
4-0
AWAY Bristol Rovers
1.31 xG 0.77
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
217 Passes 306
66% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town cruised past Bristol Rovers 4-0.

Our pre-match lean was Bristol Rovers at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Swindon Town had 44% of the ball to Bristol Rovers's 56%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.31 to 0.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Swindon Town and 1.00 for Bristol Rovers.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers?

Swindon Town 4-0 Bristol Rovers in the England - Futbol League Cup on 08/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bristol Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 32%, draw 23%, Bristol Rovers 46%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Bristol Rovers), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bristol Rovers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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