Millwall 1-0 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.74
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.26
6+ Goals
9%
21.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.12
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
14%
4.64
X/2
13%
6.46
X/X
15%
4.12
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
14%
4.97
2/X
7%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-4.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.9pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +4%
1.25/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.25
-12% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 73%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.9 Crosses 16.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Birmingham
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.32 xG 1.07
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
224 Passes 218
64% Pass Accuracy 64%
20 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Birmingham Birmingham 1-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
18.04.2023 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
02.11.2022 Birmingham Birmingham 0-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
23.04.2022 Birmingham Birmingham 2-2 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
04.12.2021 Millwall Millwall 3-1 HT 2-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
17.02.2021 Millwall Millwall 2-0 HT 1-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
1-0
AWAY Birmingham
0.84 xG 1.11
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
225 Passes 265
68% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall squeezed past Birmingham 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Millwall found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Millwall had 48% of the ball to Birmingham's 52%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 0.84 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Millwall and 0.83 for Birmingham.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Birmingham?

Millwall 1-0 Birmingham in the England - Championship on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Millwall 38%, draw 27%, Birmingham 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millwall), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Millwall) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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