Watford 1-2 Coventry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.73
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.26
6+ Goals
10%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.73 — our 27% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.92
1/2
9%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
10%
5.97
X/2
14%
5.39
X/X
11%
4.83
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
16%
3.4
2/X
8%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
38%
Away Win
38%
+0.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.8pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Watford EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Coventry EU Bookmakers 42%
+6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.48/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.36
+22% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
333 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 77%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
20.3 Crosses 18.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Watford
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Coventry
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.40 xG 1.40
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
395 Passes 311
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Coventry Coventry 3-3 HT 1-1 Watford Watford İNCL
10.04.2023 Coventry Coventry 2-2 HT 0-2 Watford Watford İNCL
05.11.2022 Watford Watford 0-1 HT 0-0 Coventry Coventry İNCL
06.02.2021 Coventry Coventry 0-0 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNCL
07.11.2020 Watford Watford 3-2 HT 0-0 Coventry Coventry İNCL
27.08.2019 Watford Watford 3-0 HT 1-0 Coventry Coventry İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Watford
1-2
AWAY Coventry
0.96 xG 1.22
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
362 Passes 241
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
30 Box Touches 15
29 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Watford vs Coventry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coventry edged past Watford 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Coventry made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Watford had 58% of the ball to Coventry's 42%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 0.96 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Watford had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Watford and 1.33 for Coventry.

What was the final score of Watford vs Coventry?

Watford 1-2 Coventry in the England - Championship on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Watford vs Coventry?

Before kick-off our model rated an Coventry win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Watford 35%, draw 27%, Coventry 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Coventry), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Coventry) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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