FC Tokyo 1-2 Vissel Kobe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
44%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.88
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.06
6+ Goals
8%
19.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 31% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.84
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
11%
6.46
X/2
12%
4.75
X/X
14%
4.2
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
3.14
2/X
6%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-2.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+2.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.3pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Vissel Kobe EU Bookmakers 45%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
1.21/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.16
+14% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +10%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
318 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 421 · 81%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
15.9 Crosses 18.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Vissel Kobe
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.42 xG 1.32
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
345 Passes 360
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.08.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-2 HT 1-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
27.05.2023 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 3-2 HT 3-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
14.09.2022 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 2-1 HT 2-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
06.04.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 3-1 HT 0-1 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
28.08.2021 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
05.05.2021 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
1-2
AWAY Vissel Kobe
0.57 xG 1.91
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
222 Passes 297
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Vissel Kobe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vissel Kobe edged past FC Tokyo 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vissel Kobe as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 45% of the ball to Vissel Kobe's 55%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.57 to 1.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vissel Kobe's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.33 for Vissel Kobe.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Vissel Kobe?

FC Tokyo 1-2 Vissel Kobe in the Japan - J1 League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Vissel Kobe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vissel Kobe win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 28%, draw 28%, Vissel Kobe 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vissel Kobe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vissel Kobe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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