Fafe 0-1 CF Os Belenenses — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.64
Over 2.5
49%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.6pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
57%
-6.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
43%
+6.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.0pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fafe EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +16%
1.19/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.07
-12% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
310 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fafe
0-1
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fafe vs CF Os Belenenses
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Os Belenenses squeezed past Fafe 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fafe at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fafe had 58% of the ball to CF Os Belenenses's 42%, shots finished 18-13.

What was the final score of Fafe vs CF Os Belenenses?

Fafe 0-1 CF Os Belenenses in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fafe vs CF Os Belenenses?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Fafe 47%, draw 25%, CF Os Belenenses 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fafe) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fafe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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