Mantova 2-1 Carrarese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 9 May 2025

📅09/05/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.41
6+ Goals
8%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 30% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.7pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.8pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mantova EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Carrarese EU Bookmakers 29%
+16% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.78/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.55
+35% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
7.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
12.5 Crosses 17.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mantova
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Carrarese
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 1.85
65% Ball Possession 35%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
434 Passes 201
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 1
20.10.2024 Carrarese Carrarese 1-1 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mantova
2-1
AWAY Carrarese
1.79 xG 1.09
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 4
428 Passes 260
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 18
8 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mantova vs Carrarese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mantova squeezed past Carrarese 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mantova as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Mantova had 58% of the ball to Carrarese's 42%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.79 to 1.09.

What was the final score of Mantova vs Carrarese?

Mantova 2-1 Carrarese in the Italy - Serie B on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mantova vs Carrarese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mantova win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Mantova 44%, draw 30%, Carrarese 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mantova) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mantova) ✗ Under 2.5
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