Cittadella 3-1 FC Bari 1908 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 9 May 2025

📅09/05/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
33%
3.04
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.64
Over 2.5
37%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.56
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.22
6+ Goals
7%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 35% vs market 31.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.9pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.9pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
57%
+5.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
43%
-5.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.5pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cittadella EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Bari 1908 EU Bookmakers 40%
-9% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +10%
1.09/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.15
-22% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +27%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
293 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
23.2 Crosses 14.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cittadella
0W-4D-2L
AWAY FC Bari 1908
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.19 xG 1.30
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
332 Passes 275
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 18
32 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.11.2024 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 3-2 HT 3-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
05.05.2024 Cittadella Cittadella 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
30.08.2023 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 1-1 HT 1-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
01.05.2023 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 1-1 HT 0-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
08.12.2022 Cittadella Cittadella 0-3 HT 0-2 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
03.06.2018 Cittadella Cittadella 2-2 HT 0-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cittadella
3-1
AWAY FC Bari 1908
1.95 xG 1.15
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
297 Passes 288
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 27
25 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cittadella vs FC Bari 1908
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cittadella got the better of FC Bari 1908 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (31% / 32% / 36%) promised a tight game; Cittadella found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cittadella had 50% of the ball to FC Bari 1908's 50%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.95 to 1.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Bari 1908 led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cittadella and 1.83 for FC Bari 1908.

What was the final score of Cittadella vs FC Bari 1908?

Cittadella 3-1 FC Bari 1908 in the Italy - Serie B on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cittadella vs FC Bari 1908?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Bari 1908 win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Cittadella 31%, draw 32%, FC Bari 1908 36%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Bari 1908) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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