Osijek 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 9 May 2025

📅09/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.71
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.05
6+ Goals
10%
10.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.71 — our 27% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-8.9pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.5pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.6pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 25%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -18%
1.48/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.48
-10% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -37%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 72%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
23.0 Crosses 16.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.48 xG 0.84
55% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
286 Passes 242
72% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.03.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
08.12.2024 Osijek Osijek 3-0 HT 2-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
22.09.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
04.05.2024 Osijek Osijek 3-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
27.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIRK
23.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
1-1
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.36 xG 1.22
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
275 Passes 422
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek and Lokomotiva Zagreb couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Osijek at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Osijek had 42% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 58%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.36 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osijek had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Osijek and 1.00 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Osijek 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Osijek 44%, draw 30%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Osijek) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Osijek) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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