Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chicago Fire v New York Red Bulls — Team-Based Signals
Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Chicago Fire
ABD
1-1
HT 1-0
New York Red Bulls
ABD
Chicago Fire 1-3 New York Red Bulls — Actual Match Statistics
New York Red Bulls beat Chicago Fire 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Chicago Fire at 67% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (60%) came in.
On the day, Chicago Fire had 64% of the ball to New York Red Bulls's 36%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 0.92 to 1.49.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chicago Fire had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chicago Fire and 0.67 for New York Red Bulls.
What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls?
Chicago Fire 1-3 New York Red Bulls in the USA - Major League on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 67%, draw 18%, New York Red Bulls 15%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chicago Fire) went the other way.