New York Red Bulls 2-1 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
33%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.64
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.56
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
13%
4.78
X/2
9%
8.22
X/X
11%
5.08
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.3
2/2
17%
5.97
2/X
5%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.3 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
33%
Away Win
25%
+7.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.2pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +10%
1.46/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.67
-3% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 79%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
17.7 Crosses 15.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York Red Bulls
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.68 xG 1.31
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
270 Passes 336
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
15.09.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-1 HT 1-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
14.04.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
01.10.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-1 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
30.04.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-1 HT 1-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
19.05.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-3 HT 1-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
01.05.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-2 HT 1-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York Red Bulls
2-1
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.35 xG 1.86
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
324 Passes 445
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 13
POST-MATCH New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York Red Bulls edged past Chicago Fire 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had New York Red Bulls as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, New York Red Bulls had 44% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 56%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 1.35 to 1.86 — on chances, Chicago Fire could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chicago Fire led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.33 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?

New York Red Bulls 2-1 Chicago Fire in the USA - Major League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 43%, draw 24%, Chicago Fire 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York Red Bulls), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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