Chicago Fire 2-1 New York Red Bulls — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.57
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
31%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.59
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.9
1/2
11%
27.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
10%
5.89
X/2
11%
5.43
X/X
15%
4.71
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
9%
3.46
2/X
11%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+2.2pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.5pp
31%
Away Win
38%
-6.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 42%
-9% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.18/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.14
-17% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +63%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 74%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
18.9 Crosses 16.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chicago Fire
2W-3D-1L
AWAY New York Red Bulls
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.16 xG 1.60
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
316 Passes 264
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
01.10.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-1 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
30.04.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-1 HT 1-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
19.05.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-3 HT 1-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
01.05.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-2 HT 1-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
29.08.2021 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-1 HT 0-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chicago Fire
2-1
AWAY New York Red Bulls
2.11 xG 1.56
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
340 Passes 377
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 23
8 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chicago Fire squeezed past New York Red Bulls 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 31%) promised a tight game; Chicago Fire found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Chicago Fire had 48% of the ball to New York Red Bulls's 52%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 2.11 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chicago Fire had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.00 for New York Red Bulls.

What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls?

Chicago Fire 2-1 New York Red Bulls in the USA - Major League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 37%, draw 31%, New York Red Bulls 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chicago Fire), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chicago Fire) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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