Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chicago Fire v New York Red Bulls — Team-Based Signals
Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Chicago Fire
ABD
1-1
HT 1-0
New York Red Bulls
ABD
3-3
HT 1-1
Chicago Fire
ABD
Chicago Fire 1-0 New York Red Bulls — Actual Match Statistics
Chicago Fire edged past New York Red Bulls 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Chicago Fire as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Chicago Fire had 51% of the ball to New York Red Bulls's 49%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.17 to 0.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Chicago Fire's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chicago Fire had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.17 for New York Red Bulls.
What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls?
Chicago Fire 1-0 New York Red Bulls in the USA - Major League on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 48%, draw 24%, New York Red Bulls 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chicago Fire) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.