Burundi 0-1 Senegal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 9 Sep 2024

Burundi
0-1 HT 0-0
Senegal
📅09/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-4 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Afrika Uluslar Cup – 2025

Burundi vs Senegal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
13%
7.95
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
66%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.86
Over 2.5
55%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.51
No
52%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.16
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.7
6+ Goals
11%
15.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 30% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
5%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
42%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
13%
Home Win
10%
+3.4pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.2pp
66%
Away Win
71%
-5.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
50%
-5.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
50%
+5.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
36%
+12.0pp
52%
BTTS No
64%
-12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burundi v Senegal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burundi EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Senegal EU Bookmakers 75%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
0.14/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/0.25
-100% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +150%
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
196 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 84%
8.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
10.1 Crosses 17.6
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.2

Burundi 0-1 Senegal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burundi
0-1
AWAY Senegal
0.13 xG 2.47
31% Ball Possession 69%
2 Total Shots 21
1 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 11
116 Passes 358
61% Pass Accuracy 83%
2 Box Touches 39
10 Crosses 24
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Burundi vs Senegal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Senegal nicked a narrow win over Burundi 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Senegal as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burundi had 31% of the ball to Senegal's 69%, shots finished 2-21, expected goals 0.13 to 2.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Senegal's control.

What was the final score of Burundi vs Senegal?

Burundi 0-1 Senegal in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 09/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burundi vs Senegal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Senegal win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Burundi 13%, draw 21%, Senegal 66%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Senegal), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Senegal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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