Karadağ 1-2 Galler — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 9 Sep 2024

📅09/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
38%
3.11
Away
33%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.54
Over 2.5
33%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.32
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
5.21
6+ Goals
6%
32.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.32 — our 38% vs market 36.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.85
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
8%
15.5
X/1
14%
6.86
X/2
12%
4.18
X/X
23%
3.83
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
14%
2.94
2/X
6%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+1.8pp
38%
Draw
29%
+8.8pp
33%
Away Win
44%
-10.5pp
67%
Under 2.5
61%
+6.0pp
33%
Over 2.5
39%
-6.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.3pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karadağ EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Galler EU Bookmakers 48%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +40% / +40%
1.19/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/0.59
+62% / +109% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% /
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
298 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
12.0 Crosses 12.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karadağ
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Galler
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
02.09.2011 Galler Galler 2-1 HT 1-0 Karadağ Karadağ AVR
03.09.2010 Karadağ Karadağ 1-0 HT 1-0 Galler Galler AVR
12.08.2009 Karadağ Karadağ 2-1 HT 2-0 Galler Galler HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karadağ
1-2
AWAY Galler
2.58 xG 1.34
50% Ball Possession 50%
22 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 5
278 Passes 299
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
31 Box Touches 14
33 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Karadağ vs Galler
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galler edged past Karadağ 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (29% / 38% / 33%) promised a tight game; Galler found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Karadağ had 50% of the ball to Galler's 50%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 2.58 to 1.34 — on chances, Karadağ could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Karadağ had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Karadağ and 1.00 for Galler.

What was the final score of Karadağ vs Galler?

Karadağ 1-2 Galler in the UEFA Uluslar League on 09/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karadağ vs Galler?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Karadağ 29%, draw 38%, Galler 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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