Türkiye 3-1 İzlanda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 9 Sep 2024

Türkiye
3-1 HT 1-1
İzlanda
📅09/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
UEFA Uluslar League – 2024/2025

Türkiye vs İzlanda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.45
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
3.09
6+ Goals
13%
9.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.76
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.9
X/1
25%
3.61
X/2
9%
13.6
X/X
7%
6.29
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.3
2/2
7%
10.7
2/X
7%
18.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
65%
-4.9pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.3pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.8pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Türkiye v İzlanda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Türkiye EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY İzlanda EU Bookmakers 18%
-77% / -77% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
0.53/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.95
-100% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / +22%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
465 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
9.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
15.0 Crosses 12.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.4

Türkiye vs İzlanda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Türkiye
1W-1D-4L
AWAY İzlanda
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.63 xG 1.77
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
404 Passes 214
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
15 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.11.2019 Türkiye Türkiye 0-0 HT 0-0 İzlanda İzlanda AVŞE
11.06.2019 İzlanda İzlanda 2-1 HT 2-1 Türkiye Türkiye AVŞE
06.10.2017 Türkiye Türkiye 0-3 HT 0-2 İzlanda İzlanda DKE
09.10.2016 İzlanda İzlanda 2-0 HT 2-0 Türkiye Türkiye DKE
13.10.2015 Türkiye Türkiye 1-0 HT 0-0 İzlanda İzlanda AVŞE
09.09.2014 İzlanda İzlanda 3-0 HT 1-0 Türkiye Türkiye AVŞE

Türkiye 3-1 İzlanda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Türkiye
3-1
AWAY İzlanda
1.63 xG 0.50
64% Ball Possession 36%
21 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
570 Passes 277
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 7
12 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Türkiye vs İzlanda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Türkiye got the better of İzlanda 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Türkiye as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Türkiye had 64% of the ball to İzlanda's 36%, shots finished 21-6, expected goals 1.63 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, İzlanda led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Türkiye and 1.67 for İzlanda.

What was the final score of Türkiye vs İzlanda?

Türkiye 3-1 İzlanda in the UEFA Uluslar League on 09/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Türkiye vs İzlanda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Türkiye win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Türkiye 60%, draw 20%, İzlanda 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Türkiye), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Türkiye) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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