Romanya 3-1 Litvanya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 9 Sep 2024

📅09/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.3
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
17%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.4
No
55%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.55
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.55 — our 27% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.5
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
25.5
X/1
16%
3.22
X/2
6%
21.85
X/X
11%
6.78
2/1
10%
27.5
2/2
5%
19.4
2/X
6%
27.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
73%
-12.5pp
23%
Draw
18%
+4.8pp
17%
Away Win
10%
+7.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
38%
+7.1pp
55%
BTTS No
62%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Romanya EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Litvanya EU Bookmakers 12%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -80% / +57%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
499 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
Crosses 11.8
Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Romanya
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Litvanya
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.56 xG 0.79
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
418 Passes 324
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 6
16 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
17.11.2018 Romanya Romanya 3-0 HT 1-0 Litvanya Litvanya AVUL
11.10.2018 Litvanya Litvanya 1-2 HT 0-1 Romanya Romanya AVUL
23.03.2016 Romanya Romanya 1-0 HT 0-0 Litvanya Litvanya HAZ
06.06.2009 Litvanya Litvanya 0-1 HT 0-1 Romanya Romanya DKE
06.09.2008 Romanya Romanya 0-3 HT 0-1 Litvanya Litvanya DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Romanya
3-1
AWAY Litvanya
2.48 xG 0.53
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
312 Passes 274
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 12
10 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Romanya vs Litvanya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Romanya beat Litvanya 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Romanya as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Romanya had 52% of the ball to Litvanya's 48%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 2.48 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Romanya had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Romanya and 0.80 for Litvanya.

What was the final score of Romanya vs Litvanya?

Romanya 3-1 Litvanya in the UEFA Uluslar League on 09/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Romanya vs Litvanya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Romanya win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Romanya 60%, draw 23%, Litvanya 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Romanya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Romanya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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