IK Sirius 3-1 IFK Varnamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 9 Nov 2025

📅09/11/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
73%
1.29
Draw
16%
5.28
Away
11%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
4.0
Over 2.5
67%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.5
No
40%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
9.77
2-3 Goals
35%
2.57
4-5 Goals
33%
2.3
6+ Goals
15%
3.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.43
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
3%
20.0
X/1 EV+ ✗
27%
4.35
X/2
4%
20.3
X/X
6%
11.35
2/1
8%
16.65
2/2
3%
14.45
2/X
7%
23.1
Value flag · X/1 at 4.35 — our 27% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
73%
Home Win
73%
-0.3pp
16%
Draw
16%
-0.1pp
11%
Away Win
11%
+0.3pp
33%
Under 2.5
22%
+11.1pp
67%
Over 2.5
78%
-11.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
62%
-2.5pp
40%
BTTS No
38%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IK Sirius EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 14%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +14%
1.79/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.81
+2% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +8%
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
475 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
20.6 Crosses 13.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IK Sirius
4W-0D-2L
AWAY IFK Varnamo
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.73 xG 1.11
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
397 Passes 395
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2025 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-2 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
04.08.2024 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 2-4 HT 0-2 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
20.04.2024 IK Sirius IK Sirius 0-1 HT 0-1 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
25.09.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-1 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
04.06.2023 IK Sirius IK Sirius 2-0 HT 2-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
10.09.2022 IK Sirius IK Sirius 2-3 HT 0-2 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IK Sirius
3-1
AWAY IFK Varnamo
4.01 xG 0.93
62% Ball Possession 38%
37 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
490 Passes 281
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
78 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH IK Sirius vs IFK Varnamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IK Sirius got the better of IFK Varnamo 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had IK Sirius as the likeliest winner at 73%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, IK Sirius had 62% of the ball to IFK Varnamo's 38%, shots finished 37-10, expected goals 4.01 to 0.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, IK Sirius had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for IK Sirius and 1.17 for IFK Varnamo.

What was the final score of IK Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?

IK Sirius 3-1 IFK Varnamo in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IK Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a IK Sirius win the most likely single outcome at about 73%, with the full match-result split IK Sirius 73%, draw 16%, IFK Varnamo 11%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (IK Sirius), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (IK Sirius) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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