Vasco da Gama 1-3 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 9 Nov 2025

📅09/11/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
17%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.37
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 28% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.95
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.2
X/1
19%
4.0
X/2
8%
11.6
X/X
14%
5.58
2/1
12%
23.55
2/2
5%
9.77
2/X
6%
18.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.0pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 20%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +14%
2.04/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.67
+1% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
373 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 75%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
25.6 Crosses 16.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Juventude
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.78 xG 1.45
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
469 Passes 271
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.08.2025 Juventude Juventude 2-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
06.10.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 1-1 Juventude Juventude BR1
20.06.2024 Juventude Juventude 2-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
07.11.2009 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR2
01.08.2009 Juventude Juventude 1-2 HT 1-2 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
04.10.2007 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
1-3
AWAY Juventude
1.45 xG 1.82
71% Ball Possession 29%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
531 Passes 192
92% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 12
35 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventude got the better of Vasco da Gama 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Vasco da Gama at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 71% of the ball to Juventude's 29%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.45 to 1.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventude led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.33 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Juventude?

Vasco da Gama 1-3 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 57%, draw 26%, Juventude 18%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vasco da Gama), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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