New Mexico United vs Orange County SC Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
New Mexico United v Orange County SC — Team-Based Signals
New Mexico United vs Orange County SC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
3-1
HT 1-0
Orange County SC
USLP
New Mexico United 2-1 Orange County SC — Actual Match Statistics
New Mexico United squeezed past Orange County SC 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had New Mexico United as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.
On the day, New Mexico United had 61% of the ball to Orange County SC's 39%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.90 to 0.52.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for New Mexico United and 0.83 for Orange County SC.
What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Orange County SC?
New Mexico United 2-1 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Orange County SC?
Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 47%, draw 23%, Orange County SC 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.