FC Tulsa vs Phoenix Rising Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
FC Tulsa v Phoenix Rising — Team-Based Signals
FC Tulsa vs Phoenix Rising Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Phoenix Rising
USLP
FC Tulsa 1-0 Phoenix Rising — Actual Match Statistics
FC Tulsa nicked a narrow win over Phoenix Rising 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Tulsa as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, FC Tulsa had 46% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 54%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.17 to 0.55.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Tulsa and 1.00 for Phoenix Rising.
What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs Phoenix Rising?
FC Tulsa 1-0 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs Phoenix Rising?
Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 51%, draw 21%, Phoenix Rising 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tulsa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.