FC Tulsa 1-0 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 9 Nov 2025

📅09/11/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.92
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.48
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
48%
+3.1pp
21%
Draw
26%
-4.6pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.4pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 30%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +22%
1.81/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.49
+6% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
335 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
20.0 Crosses 15.7
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tulsa
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.83 xG 1.21
49% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
322 Passes 351
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.06.2025 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-1 HT 0-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
17.04.2025 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-1 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising ABDK
09.03.2025 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
07.09.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
06.04.2024 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 3-3 HT 1-2 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
10.09.2023 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-0 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tulsa
1-0
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.17 xG 0.55
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 5
203 Passes 268
60% Pass Accuracy 68%
29 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FC Tulsa vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tulsa nicked a narrow win over Phoenix Rising 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Tulsa as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Tulsa had 46% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 54%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.17 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Tulsa and 1.00 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs Phoenix Rising?

FC Tulsa 1-0 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 51%, draw 21%, Phoenix Rising 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tulsa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Tulsa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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