Sestri Levante 2-1 Lucchese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 10 May 2025

📅10/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.6
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
17%
4.14
6+ Goals
8%
20.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 37% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-3.2pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.6pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.1pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Lucchese EU Bookmakers 37%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
0.84/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.80
-28% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +40%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
301 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sestri Levante
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Lucchese
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.02.2025 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 1-1 HT 1-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
11.10.2024 Lucchese Lucchese 0-0 HT 0-0 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
14.01.2024 Lucchese Lucchese 1-3 HT 1-1 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
09.09.2023 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 0-1 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sestri Levante
2-1
AWAY Lucchese
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sestri Levante vs Lucchese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sestri Levante nicked a narrow win over Lucchese 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 30% / 36% — and on the day Sestri Levante made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sestri Levante had 40% of the ball to Lucchese's 60%, shots finished 14-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sestri Levante and 0.75 for Lucchese.

What was the final score of Sestri Levante vs Lucchese?

Sestri Levante 2-1 Lucchese in the Italy - Serie C on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sestri Levante vs Lucchese?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lucchese win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Sestri Levante 34%, draw 30%, Lucchese 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lucchese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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