Ituano 2-1 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 10 Aug 2024

Ituano
2-1 HT 1-1
Chapecoense
📅10/08/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Ituano vs Chapecoense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
30%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.51
Over 2.5
34%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.06
No
62%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.25
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
15%
5.47
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+4.8pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.3pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-4.5pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.5pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.5pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.6pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ituano v Chapecoense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ituano EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 38%
+2% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.16/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.85
+15% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
334 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
20.3 Crosses 17.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Ituano vs Chapecoense Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ituano
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Chapecoense
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.08 xG 1.21
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
270 Passes 314
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.04.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 3-1 HT 1-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
18.11.2023 Ituano Ituano 0-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
19.07.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-0 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
24.07.2022 Ituano Ituano 1-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
09.04.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-1 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BR2

Ituano 2-1 Chapecoense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ituano
2-1
AWAY Chapecoense
0.72 xG 0.57
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
365 Passes 236
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ituano vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ituano squeezed past Chapecoense 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Ituano found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ituano had 57% of the ball to Chapecoense's 43%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.72 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Chapecoense led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Ituano and 1.00 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Ituano vs Chapecoense?

Ituano 2-1 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ituano vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ituano win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ituano 40%, draw 30%, Chapecoense 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ituano) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ituano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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