Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sacramento Republic v Monterey Bay — Team-Based Signals
Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-1
Sacramento Republic
USLP
0-1
HT 0-1
Monterey Bay
USLP
1-0
HT 1-0
Sacramento Republic
USLP
Sacramento Republic 1-0 Monterey Bay — Actual Match Statistics
Sacramento Republic nicked a narrow win over Monterey Bay 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Sacramento Republic had 54% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 46%, shots finished 23-5, expected goals 1.92 to 0.43 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sacramento Republic's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sacramento Republic and 0.67 for Monterey Bay.
What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay?
Sacramento Republic 1-0 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 64%, draw 21%, Monterey Bay 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.