Ekvador 1-0 Arjantin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 10 Sep 2025

📅10/09/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
36%
2.7
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.36
Over 2.5
33%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.29
No
54%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
1.84
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
14%
6.85
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.86
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.6
X/1
7%
5.86
X/2
9%
5.13
X/X
21%
3.02
2/1
13%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.97
2/X
10%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
31%
+0.4pp
36%
Draw
34%
+1.6pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-2.0pp
67%
Under 2.5
70%
-3.1pp
33%
Over 2.5
30%
+3.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+6.2pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ekvador EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Arjantin EU Bookmakers 38%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.55/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/2.00
+125% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -30%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
284 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 73%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
20.9 Crosses 10.8
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ekvador
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Arjantin
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.77 xG 1.51
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
280 Passes 427
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.07.2024 Arjantin Arjantin 1-1 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador AKU
10.06.2024 Arjantin Arjantin 1-0 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ
08.09.2023 Arjantin Arjantin 1-0 HT 0-0 Ekvador Ekvador DKE
30.03.2022 Ekvador Ekvador 1-1 HT 0-1 Arjantin Arjantin DKE
04.07.2021 Arjantin Arjantin 3-0 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador AKU
09.10.2020 Arjantin Arjantin 1-0 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ekvador
1-0
AWAY Arjantin
1.69 xG 0.41
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 8
359 Passes 488
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 13
5 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ekvador vs Arjantin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ekvador nicked a narrow win over Arjantin 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 36% / 33% — and on the day Ekvador made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (67%) came in.

On the day, Ekvador had 43% of the ball to Arjantin's 57%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.69 to 0.41 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ekvador's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arjantin led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Ekvador and 1.33 for Arjantin.

What was the final score of Ekvador vs Arjantin?

Ekvador 1-0 Arjantin in the World Cup Qualifiers on 10/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ekvador vs Arjantin?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Ekvador 31%, draw 36%, Arjantin 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Draw) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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