Cebelitarık 1-0 San Marino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 10 Oct 2024

📅10/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
58%
1.45
Over
42%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.67
No Pick
59%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2.01
2-3
36%
1.84
4-5
19%
6.59
6+
10%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.24
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
20.1
X/1
19%
3.31
X/2
10%
10.35
X/X
12%
3.8
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
6%
10.4
2/X
5%
21.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
57%
-0.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.1pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
65%
-7.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
35%
+7.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
33%
+7.3pp
59%
BTTS No
67%
-7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cebelitarık EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY San Marino EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
2.06/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/1.01
-2% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +78%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
345 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 76%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 4.0
14.2 Crosses 3.0
5.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cebelitarık
1W-1D-0L
AWAY San Marino
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.04 xG 0.39
66% Ball Possession 34%
10 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 1
424 Passes 186
84% Pass Accuracy 69%
11 Box Touches 6
24 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.11.2020 San Marino San Marino 0-0 HT 0-0 Cebelitarık Cebelitarık AVUL
05.09.2020 Cebelitarık Cebelitarık 1-0 HT 1-0 San Marino San Marino AVUL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cebelitarık
1-0
AWAY San Marino
0.96 xG 0.76
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
263 Passes 260
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 8
POST-MATCH Cebelitarık vs San Marino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cebelitarık edged past San Marino 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cebelitarık as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cebelitarık had 50% of the ball to San Marino's 50%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.96 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cebelitarık had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cebelitarık and 0.00 for San Marino.

What was the final score of Cebelitarık vs San Marino?

Cebelitarık 1-0 San Marino in the UEFA Uluslar League on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cebelitarık vs San Marino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cebelitarık win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Cebelitarık 57%, draw 23%, San Marino 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cebelitarık), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cebelitarık) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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