Lusitania 1-4 Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
34%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.68
Over 2.5
53%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
32%
+7.9pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.6pp
34%
Away Win
40%
-5.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.2pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldas EU Bookmakers 43%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.97/2.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.70
+50% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -27%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Caldas
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.08.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-0 HT 0-0 Lusitania Lusitania POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania
1-4
AWAY Caldas
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lusitania vs Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas ran out comfortable winners over Lusitania 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Caldas made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Lusitania had 56% of the ball to Caldas's 44%, shots finished 7-10.

What was the final score of Lusitania vs Caldas?

Lusitania 1-4 Caldas in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania vs Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lusitania 40%, draw 26%, Caldas 34%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lusitania) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lusitania) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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