Exeter City 1-2 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 10 Dec 2024

📅10/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.65
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
54%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.03
Over
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
23%
3.63
2-3
41%
1.77
4-5
20%
3.04
6+
16%
10.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.54
1/2
8%
22.1
1/X
5%
17.05
X/1
7%
11.0
X/2
18%
3.82
X/X
10%
5.84
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.0
2/X
10%
16.35
Value flag · 2/X at 16.35 — our 10% vs market 3.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
21%
Home Win
19%
+2.4pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
54%
Away Win
59%
-4.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.2pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City The Market 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham The Market 62%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.11/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.97/1.73
-40% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +75% /
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
273 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 77%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
17.3 Crosses 26.0
0.5 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Birmingham
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.08 xG 2.15
34% Ball Possession 66%
3 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
181 Passes 438
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
2 Box Touches 38
14 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2024 Exeter City Exeter City 0-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
1-2
AWAY Birmingham
1.20 xG 1.52
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
211 Passes 467
69% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham squeezed past Exeter City 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Exeter City had 36% of the ball to Birmingham's 64%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.20 to 1.52.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Birmingham?

Exeter City 1-2 Birmingham in the England - Futbol League Cup on 10/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 21%, draw 25%, Birmingham 54%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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