Chelsea 5-0 Morecambe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.11
Draw
18%
12.6
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.0
Over 2.5
57%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.51
No
52%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
25.5
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
41%
4.22
4-5 Goals
27%
2.46
6+ Goals
13%
1.93
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 4.22 — our 41% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.05
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
34.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
25%
4.47
X/2
6%
34.5
X/X
7%
34.5
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
6%
34.5
2/X
4%
34.5
Value flag · X/1 at 4.47 — our 25% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
87%
-20.2pp
18%
Draw
6%
+11.6pp
16%
Away Win
7%
+8.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
36%
+12.4pp
52%
BTTS No
64%
-12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Morecambe EU Bookmakers 9%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
3.59/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.35/3.60
+28% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / -3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
436 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
44.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 4.8
21.3 Crosses 4.0
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Morecambe
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
4.44 xG 0.12
84% Ball Possession 16%
25 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 0
746 Passes 82
90% Pass Accuracy 53%
49 Box Touches 3
26 Crosses 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
10.01.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 4-0 HT 2-0 Morecambe Morecambe FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
5-0
AWAY Morecambe
2.53 xG 0.50
81% Ball Possession 19%
28 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 2
622 Passes 102
92% Pass Accuracy 67%
43 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Morecambe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea cruised past Morecambe 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Chelsea had 81% of the ball to Morecambe's 19%, shots finished 28-7, expected goals 2.53 to 0.50.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Morecambe?

Chelsea 5-0 Morecambe in the England - FA Cup on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Morecambe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 66%, draw 18%, Morecambe 16%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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