Reading 1-3 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 11 Jan 2025

Reading
1-3 HT 0-0
Burnley
📅11/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2024/2025

Reading vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
4.13
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
46%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 26% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.69
1/2
6%
23.4
1/X
8%
15.55
X/1
10%
10.0
X/2
22%
4.03
X/X
9%
5.27
2/1
11%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.16
2/X
6%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
21%
+10.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.5pp
46%
Away Win
55%
-8.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Reading v Burnley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Reading EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 59%
-33% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-35% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
258 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 77%
12.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
18.0 Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards –

Reading vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Reading
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Burnley
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.47 xG 1.19
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
218 Passes 408
68% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.04.2023 Reading Reading 0-0 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNCL
29.10.2022 Burnley Burnley 2-1 HT 0-0 Reading Reading İNCL
13.02.2016 Reading Reading 0-0 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNCL
26.09.2015 Burnley Burnley 1-2 HT 0-2 Reading Reading İNCL
03.05.2014 Reading Reading 2-2 HT 1-2 Burnley Burnley İNCL
05.10.2013 Burnley Burnley 2-1 HT 1-0 Reading Reading İNCL

Reading 1-3 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Reading
1-3
AWAY Burnley
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 8
0 Passes 0
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Reading vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley beat Reading 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Burnley as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Reading had 41% of the ball to Burnley's 59%, shots finished 11-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Reading and 1.17 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Reading vs Burnley?

Reading 1-3 Burnley in the England - FA Cup on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Reading vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Burnley win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Reading 31%, draw 23%, Burnley 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burnley) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Burnley) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FAK More England - FA Cup
11 Jan 2025
15:00 Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Analysis →
15:00 Birmingham vs Lincoln City Analysis →
15:00 Middlesbrough vs Blackburn Rovers Analysis →
15:15 Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →
17:00 Leicester City vs Queens Park Rangers Analysis →
18:00 Chelsea vs Morecambe Analysis →