Kilmarnock 4-3 St. Mirren — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 11 Feb 2026

Kilmarnock
4-3 HT 2-1
St. Mirren
📅11/02/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2025/2026

Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
34%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.75
Over
53%
1.93
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
58%
1.82
No
42%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2.9
2-3
41%
1.76
4-5 ✗
26%
3.89
6+
8%
17.55
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.89 — our 26% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.61
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
4%
13.75
X/1
13%
6.33
X/2
10%
5.16
X/X
22%
4.39
2/1
7%
33.5
2/2
17%
3.37
2/X
5%
13.35
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Kilmarnock v St. Mirren — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kilmarnock The Market 36%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Mirren The Market 43%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
1.63/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.10
+1% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
282 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 73%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
24.1 Crosses 25.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kilmarnock
2W-3D-1L
AWAY St. Mirren
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.48 xG 1.04
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
220 Passes 268
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.12.2025 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-0 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
04.10.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 2-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
19.09.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-2 HT 1-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKLK
29.03.2025 St. Mirren St. Mirren 5-1 HT 2-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
02.01.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
14.09.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 2-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP

Kilmarnock 4-3 St. Mirren — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kilmarnock
4-3
AWAY St. Mirren
2.65 xG 1.96
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 4
349 Passes 227
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 37
29 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Kilmarnock squeezed past St. Mirren 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

From a near-even 35% / 31% / 34% read, it was Kilmarnock who turned the coin-flip their way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

The match data tells the story: possession split 58% to 42% in Kilmarnock's favour, shots finished 20-15, expected goals 2.65 to 1.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Kilmarnock against 1.50 for St. Mirren.

Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren Result & Final Score

Kilmarnock 4-3 St. Mirren in the Scotland - Premiership on 11/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Kilmarnock win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Kilmarnock 35%, draw 31%, St. Mirren 34%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kilmarnock), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kilmarnock) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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