Sestri Levante 2-0 Recanatese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 11 Mar 2024

📅11/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.12
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.82
6+ Goals
11%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 31% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
43%
-7.3pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.3pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.7pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Recanatese EU Bookmakers 33%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
2.50/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/0.66
+88% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +76%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
319 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sestri Levante
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Recanatese
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
68% Ball Possession 32%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 4
06.11.2023 Recanatese Recanatese 2-2 HT 2-1 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sestri Levante
2-0
AWAY Recanatese
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sestri Levante vs Recanatese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sestri Levante got the better of Recanatese 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 31% / 33%) promised a tight game; Sestri Levante found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sestri Levante had 49% of the ball to Recanatese's 51%, shots finished 17-14.

What was the final score of Sestri Levante vs Recanatese?

Sestri Levante 2-0 Recanatese in the Italy - Serie C on 11/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sestri Levante vs Recanatese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sestri Levante win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Sestri Levante 36%, draw 31%, Recanatese 33%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sestri Levante), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sestri Levante) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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