Chester 3-1 Warrington Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.32
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
21%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.33
No
58%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.21
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.31
6+ Goals
8%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 31% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
71%
-15.9pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.6pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+10.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
39%
+3.3pp
58%
BTTS No
61%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chester EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Warrington Town EU Bookmakers 14%
-21% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.39/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.29
-30% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +48%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
427 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chester
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Warrington Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2024 Warrington Town Warrington Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Chester Chester İCON
01.01.2024 Warrington Town Warrington Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Chester Chester İCON
26.12.2023 Chester Chester 2-0 HT 1-0 Warrington Town Warrington Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chester
3-1
AWAY Warrington Town
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Chester vs Warrington Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chester beat Warrington Town 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chester as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chester had 63% of the ball to Warrington Town's 37%, shots finished 17-6.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chester and 0.67 for Warrington Town.

What was the final score of Chester vs Warrington Town?

Chester 3-1 Warrington Town in the England - Conference on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chester vs Warrington Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chester win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Chester 55%, draw 24%, Warrington Town 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chester) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chester) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İCON More England - Conference
11 Mar 2025
00:00 Darlington 1883 vs Radcliffe Borough Analysis →
22:45 Weymouth vs Weston-super-Mare Analysis →
22:45 Farnborough vs Boreham Wood Analysis →
22:45 Maidstone United vs Dorking Wanderers Analysis →
22:45 Chesham United vs Tonbridge Angels Analysis →
22:45 Bath City vs Slough Town Analysis →