Vis Pesaro 1-1 Gubbio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.13
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
5.18
6+ Goals
8%
33.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.3pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.1pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vis Pesaro EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Gubbio EU Bookmakers 28%
+11% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -18%
1.48/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.37
+15% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
267 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vis Pesaro
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Gubbio
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2024 Gubbio Gubbio 1-3 HT 1-1 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
02.02.2024 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 1-3 HT 1-2 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
23.09.2023 Gubbio Gubbio 1-0 HT 1-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
01.04.2023 Gubbio Gubbio 3-0 HT 1-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
29.11.2022 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 0-4 HT 0-3 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
06.03.2022 Gubbio Gubbio 3-0 HT 2-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vis Pesaro
1-1
AWAY Gubbio
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vis Pesaro vs Gubbio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vis Pesaro and Gubbio couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vis Pesaro at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Vis Pesaro had 51% of the ball to Gubbio's 49%, shots finished 14-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gubbio led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vis Pesaro and 2.50 for Gubbio.

What was the final score of Vis Pesaro vs Gubbio?

Vis Pesaro 1-1 Gubbio in the Italy - Serie C on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vis Pesaro vs Gubbio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vis Pesaro win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Vis Pesaro 45%, draw 28%, Gubbio 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vis Pesaro), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vis Pesaro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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