Sebail FK 1-4 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
9.57
Draw
19%
5.28
Away
62%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.19
No
60%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
13%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
21%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
7%
+11.6pp
19%
Draw
15%
+4.3pp
62%
Away Win
78%
-15.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.8pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 84%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +2%
0.64/1.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.41/0.57
+8% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +19%
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
228 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 432 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sebail FK
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Karabağ
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
27.02.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 2-1 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERK
11.02.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 5-0 HT 0-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
06.02.2025 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-1 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
23.11.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-3 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
14.09.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 2-1 HT 1-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
03.02.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Sebail FK vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ cruised past Sebail FK 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sebail FK and 2.67 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Sebail FK vs Karabağ?

Sebail FK 1-4 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sebail FK vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Sebail FK 19%, draw 19%, Karabağ 62%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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